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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."